Prize draws and sweepstakes in loyalty programmes: reading the odds
A small hand-cranked lottery drum being turned for a prize draw at an event. Photo: pycon jp, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Enter to win a dream stay! Loyalty programmes love prize draws. Here is how to read the small print and how the odds compare with a national lottery.
Hotel and airline programmes regularly run prize draws: book a stay, answer a question or spend a few points, and you could win a luxury trip. They are fun, and occasionally someone does win a week in the Maldives. But it helps to understand what you are really entering.
Free draws and paid entries
In many countries, a promotion that requires a purchase to enter must offer a free alternative method of entry, otherwise it may be treated as a lottery under the law. That is why the small print often mentions entering by post or by a free online form. Some programmes also run auctions or draws where you spend points to enter. Points are not cash, but they have a value, so a points entry is effectively a small ticket purchase.
How to read the odds
Prize draws rarely publish the odds of winning, because they depend on the number of entries. You can still make an estimate. If a programme has millions of members and a draw is promoted to all of them, even a modest participation rate means tens of thousands of entries for a handful of prizes.
| Draw | Approximate odds of the top prize |
|---|---|
| EuroMillions jackpot | About 1 in 140 million |
| US Powerball jackpot | About 1 in 292 million |
| Loyalty draw: 5 prizes, 50,000 entries | 1 in 10,000 per entry |
| Loyalty draw: 1 prize, 200,000 entries | 1 in 200,000 per entry |
In that light, a free loyalty draw is far better value than any national lottery jackpot, simply because there are fewer entrants. A draw that costs points is a different matter: work out what the points would be worth as a hotel discount and ask whether you would pay that much for the ticket.
Small print worth checking
- Who is eligible, and from which countries.
- Whether the prize includes flights, taxes and fees, or only the hotel nights.
- Blackout dates and expiry dates for the prize.
- Whether a cash alternative exists and whether the prize is taxable where you live.
Enter the free draws for fun, think twice before spending points on paid ones, and keep the bulk of your balance for discounts you can count on. Our guide to redeeming points explains the guaranteed options.
